Assessment and simulation of ecosystem carbon storage in rapidly urbanizing areas based on land use cover: a case study of the southern Jiangsu urban agglomeration, China

Since China’s reform and opening-up period, the southern Jiangsu urban agglomeration has been one of fastest urbanizing regions in country. This rapid urbanization led to dramatic changes land use cover that have primary drivers carbon stock terrestrial ecosystem. In this study, we utilize Integrated Valuation Ecosystem Services Trade-offs (InVEST) model a patch-generating simulation (PLUS) analyze stocks over past 30 years. We then simulate study area year 2050 under natural growth, cultivated conservation, ecological conservation scenarios. The results showed 1) years, increased by 2.98 times, reaching 7,408.42 km 2 2020. contrast, forested continued decrease with urbanization. 2) Between 1990 2020, decreased 5.34%. spatial distribution are consistent use. 3) By 2050, loss was largest growth scenario at 10.49 mt, while smallest protection 0.97 mt. Under scenario, 9.9 indicate adoption measures can effectively control reduction rapidly areas. 4) conversion forest reason for area, which primarily located outward expansion area. provides reference- data-based support management, decision-making, planning